SPOKANE, Wash. — Just over three years after a deadly heat dome gripped the Pacific Northwest for days, very hot weather is back in the forecast for Spokane.
The 2021 heatwave has been described as a 1-in-10,000-year event, and this week’s heatwave is expected to be mild in comparison.
According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 145 people died due to the heat in Washington state, 119 in Oregon and 25 in California, all figures substantially higher than normal for that time of year.
Since the 2021 heatwave, researchers with the Gonzaga Climate Institute have been hard at work studying the impact of these heatwaves, the communities most impacted in Spokane and the factors that can make heat deadly.
During that time, the institute uncovered patterns of urban heat islands, contributed to research identifying ways to save lives from extreme heat in Washington state and created a set of resources for the public when temperatures get dangerously high.
All of that and more has been done to get Spokane ready for a growing threat of extreme heat.
“We know as a community, with the changing of the climate, that we need to be better prepared,” Brian Henning, director of the climate institute, said. “These things are happening more often, and it can be dangerous, so people need to be prepared to stay safe.”
Research conducted by Henning and the institute paints a stark picture of the future of summer in the Inland Northwest as the Earth continues to warm. For much of the 20th century, Spokane could expect to see two or three extreme heat days each year. As we move further into the 21st century, Henning says projections show Spokane seeing closer to 20-30 extreme heat days per year, if humanity doesn’t address climate change more seriously.
Climate change is poised to make heat waves more common, longer and more extreme. While very hot days, potentially made worse by the changing climate, make headlines, not all hot days are equally as dangerous.
Most people look out for the daytime highs, but Henning says it’s warmer than usual nighttime lows can make an uncomfortable heatwave an unsafe one.
“Everybody wants to know, like, ‘how hot is it going to get?’ but some of the risks that we have are actually related to those nighttime temperatures,” Henning said. “And so, what everybody should look at is, ‘is it getting cool enough at night, can you cool off your house and your body, (can you) open our windows at night and bringing that that cool night air.'”
In 2021, overnight lows soared well above normal. As of Sunday afternoon, lows weren’t expected to break 70 degrees Fahrenheit in this heatwave, but even those temperatures can be a safety concern for homes without air conditioning, something Spokane has a lot of.
The climate institute surveyed homes across the city in 2022 in an effort to see how many households go without air conditioning.
Researchers are still analyzing the data, but preliminary results show about 15% of respondents didn’t have any air conditioning at all. An additional set of respondents said they couldn’t afford to use the air conditioning they had.
“I think as we move into this century, as the climate continues to change, what we’re finding is that, just like every house needs to have a way of heating in the winter… it’s illegal to rent (out) an apartment that doesn’t have heating, I think increasingly, we’re going to have to do the same thing with cooling,” Henning said.
Home cooling isn’t the only thing missing in many Spokane neighborhoods. The climate center’s research has identified significant variances in temperatures throughout the city.
“If you live in a beautiful neighborhood on South Hill, and you have lots of old trees, what we found is it’s a lot cooler than in neighborhoods that, let’s say like East Central, which is bisected by the freeway that has the railroads and has lots of large buildings,” Henning said.
Those extra hot neighborhoods are called heat islands, and the difference between the coolest and hottest parts of Spokane can be staggering. In the morning of the researchers’ study, the difference recorded was as much as 14 degrees Fahrenheit.
The phenomenon highlights a gap in our current weather communication strategies.
“When you look at your phone, or you look, watch the news, and they say this is what the temperature is outside, if you’re living in an urban heat island, it could be that actually the temperature is eight to 12 degrees warmer, where you are, meaning that you might be in more danger than you realize,” Henning said.
Based on that research, the institute now provides an online tool mapping out which neighborhoods are hotter than others.
Regardless of where you live, this upcoming heatwave has the potential to be dangerous. Recently, the National Weather Service released a new tool to better gauge heat risk.
Henning touted the forecast system as a way to go beyond top-level data like daily high temperatures and better reflect how dangerous heat can be on a given day.
These tools provided both by the Gonzaga Climate Institue and those provided by governments and nonprofits all represent efforts to be resilient in the face of climate change.
While the role of governments in combatting the causes of climate change is hotly contested in the political world, Henning is hopeful Spokane can lead the way in preparing for its effects.
“As we take too long to address climate change, we find we need to make sure we’re creating opportunities so the most vulnerable members of our community can be resilient,” Henning said.
Click here for resources to keep you and your family safe during extreme heat.
