European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde said Monday eurozone policymakers would keep cutting interest rates and warned that higher US tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump could hit growth in the bloc.
“Even though we are not there yet, we are close to achieving our target” of two-percent inflation, Lagarde said in a speech at the Bank of Lithuania.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” she said.
The ECB cut rates again last week as inflation looked to be coming under control and the eurozone economy showed signs of weakness.
The quarter-point move was the Frankfurt-based central bank’s third cut in a row and its fourth since June.
The easing cycle has brought the ECB’s key deposit rate down to three percent from an all-time high of four percent.
The central bank’s stance remained “restrictive”, Lagarde said, meaning it would act as a brake on business activity in the eurozone — the ECB’s main lever for tamping inflation.
But “with the disinflation process well on track, and downside risks to growth”, the ECB could loosen its monetary policy and soften its messaging, Lagarde said.
Inflation in the eurozone stood at 2.3 percent in November, having hit highs of over 10 percent in late 2022.
And in new economic projections published last week, the ECB said it expected the inflation rate to decline to 2.1 percent in 2025 and 1.9 percent in 2026.
There was now a greater risk that inflation would fall even further due to a “weaker-than-expected growth outlook” and “geopolitical events”, Lagarde said.
If the United States took a protectionist run on trade under Trump, “growth in the euro area is likely to take a hit”, she said.
On the campaign trail, Trump threatened blanket tariffs of at least 10 percent on all imports when he returns to the Oval Office.
Even if the European market was not targeted directly, eurozone manufacturers were “particularly sensitive to shifts in confidence about world trade”, Lagarde said.
At the same time, “a rise in geopolitical tensions could push energy prices and freight costs higher in the near term”.
The ECB’s governing council will hold its first rate-setting meeting of 2025 on January 30, 10 days after Trump’s inauguration.
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