Markets mostly fell Tuesday on signs of weakness in the US economy, even as the data boosted hopes for an interest rate cut, while Mumbai tumbled as it appeared India’s prime minister would not win as big an election victory as expected.
The losses came as energy firms were weighed by a further drop in oil that came after OPEC and other major producers said they would begin lifting output before the year’s end, calling time on a period of cuts that has kept crude elevated.
Investors have shifted nervously in recent weeks on concerns that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates until 2025 as inflation remains stubbornly above target and decision-makers warned against moving too early, insisting on seeing more evidence prices are under control.
On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its manufacturing index showing US activity contracted for a second successive month in May.
The figures indicated that businesses were struggling with elevated interest rates and weak consumer spending, among other things.
“The manufacturing ISM data reaffirmed several prevailing economic trends: decelerating inflation, slowing growth, and a tight labour market,” said Gary Pzegeo of CIBC Private Wealth US.
“We should see higher odds of a rate cut later this year priced into interest rate futures,” he added.
While traders have of late taken soft economic data as a positive sign, owing to the fact it gives the Fed room to cut rates, the latest news stoked concerns about the outlook for the economy.
BMO Capital Markets’ Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman added that “investors are on guard for indications that the downside trajectory is accelerating”.
Focus is now on the release of closely watched non-farm payroll figures that are due out on Friday and will provide a fresh snapshot of the labour market and economy.
Wall Street’s three main indexes diverged, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 supported by Big Tech.
But Asia stumbled, with Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Bangkok and Wellington all in negative territory. However, Hong Kong reversed an early loss to edge up, while Shanghai, Wellington and Jakarta also advanced.
Mumbai tumbled more than seven percent as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party looked set to win India’s national elections but not with the landslide initially expected.
The Sensex had jumped more than three percent Monday on hopes a big majority would help Modi push through economy-boosting measures.
London, Paris and Frankfurt were all in the red.
Oil prices extended the losses of more than three percent racked up Monday after OPEC said it would begin lifting output later in the year and through 2025, after an extended period of cuts.
The news came as investors were already fretting over China’s ongoing economic troubles and figures showing demand in the United States appeared to be thinning.
“OPEC+ has a history of surprising the market, and this time was no different as the group unveiled a roadmap to start raising output in 2025,” said HSBC strategists in a commentary.
“How OPEC+ unwinds its multiple, complex set of cuts… remains one of the biggest questions for the oil market.
“In our view, the agreement provides some clarity for the next 19 months, but questions remain including how remaining cuts will be unwound beyond end-2025.”
– Key figures around 0715 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.2 percent at 38,837.46 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.6 percent at 18,518.17
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,091.20 (close)
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2 percent at 8,242.82
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 155.92 from 156.21 yen on Monday
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0898 from $1.0903
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2800 from $1.2802
Euro/pound: UP at 85.15 from 85.14 pence
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.2 percent at $73.33 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.0 percent at $77.61 per barrel
New York – S&P 500: UP 0.1 percent at 5,283.40 (close)
dan/sco
