Progress has been slow but it is relentless. Russia’s army has been advancing at several points along the Ukrainian war front for weeks now, gobbling up territory one village at a time.
It has cast doubt over Kyiv’s ability to stem the tide, let alone push back the advancing troops.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army has taken 478 square kilometres of territory since the start of October — its largest monthly territorial gain since the early weeks of its invasion in February 2022, according to AFP analysis of data from the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“Russia has been on the offensive for an entire year,” said Meduza, a Russian opposition website that has been blocked by Moscow.
“Yet this past week has been one of the toughest — if not the toughest — for Ukraine’s armed forces during that time,” it added.
– Accelerated progression –
The ISW data does not point to Ukrainian military collapse in any way, “but what is the most concerning is that it’s a pattern”, said former French army colonel Michel Goya, a war historian.
“We have seen an acceleration in this progression, with the feeling that it cannot be stopped,” he added, describing a “Russian strategy of pressure everywhere, all the time, while waiting for (the defence) to crack, crumble or collapse.”
Almost every day, Moscow claims a new victory.
“None of the locations, on their own, have any great importance, but together it represents a great success for the Russian army,” said Alexander Khramchikhin, a Moscow-based Russian military analyst.
“The Russian advance, even though not rapid, shows the increasing deterioration (of the situation) in Ukraine.”
– Artillery power –
Since the start of the war, Moscow has maintained artillery superiority.
Despite Western sanctions, Russia has turned its economy into a war machine, with support from allies, headed by Iran and North Korea.
“The Russian war industry produces more weapons than Ukraine receives,” said Khramchikhin, and “more ammunition thanks to its industry and that of North Korea”.
At the start of this year, a US Congress freeze on a multi-billion-dollar aid package significantly slowed the supply of weapons to Ukraine, “while three million North Korean shells arrived in Russian depots”, said Goya.
And Moscow developed a guidance system for bombs, which it uses “by the thousands”, he said, adding that some 1,600 North Korean KN-02 ballistic missiles had pummelled Ukraine.
– New tactical approach –
Rather than capturing towns district by district, the Russian army has gone for a suffocation tactic.
“The principle is to threaten to surround the pockets that are then forced to retreat,” said Goya.
For Alexander Kots, a war journalist for the popular Russian daily Komsomolskaya Pravda and strong supporter of the invasion, “we refused to storm towns and villages head on, where we would have to eat up every square metre of road, every house.”
As such, Ukrainian forces “can be forced to withdraw along a long corridor that is open to fire.”
– Ukraine’s tired morale –
Gradually, the Russian advance has eaten away at Ukrainian morale. Kyiv is struggling to recruit, while the army’s disorganisation and corruption facilitate desertions and refusals to fight.
“Beating an enemy is killing their hope. When the sacrifice of those who die is for nothing, there is no sense in fighting on,” said Goya.
“The (President Volodymyr) Zelensky government, faced with the war weariness of the civilian population, is struggling to mobilise,” said a French military leader on the condition of anonymity.
On Tuesday, Kyiv announced a new mobilisation drive aimed at recruiting 160,000 people, faced with the fear of Russia deploying North Korean troops, in order to boost numbers by 85 percent.
– Western procrastination –
On the flip side, Russia is suffering heavy losses, experts say.
Ivan Klyszcz, from the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) in Estonia, said that at the current rate, Russia “would finish capturing the rest of the Donbas region of Ukraine after several months and at an extremely high cost.”
In the meantime, the West is procrastinating.
Zelensky’s “victory plan”, which was supposed to put him in a position of strength to negotiate, has divided allies, while the US presidential elections in November have created uncertainty.
“It seems that Ukraine will soon realise that it needs a change of course, and that relying on Western partners… will become a counter-productive strategy in the near future,” said Klyszcz.
However, the deployment of North Korean troops could provoke a sense of urgency in the West.
But “whether this urgency will translate into new pledges or enhanced support, is yet to be seen,” added Klyszcz.
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