WASHINGTON (AP) — As thousands of counties and towns report vote totals, it can be hard to figure out when the results reported so far will reflect the outcome. The first report of the night might show a massive lead for one candidate, but why does that lead dwindle in some races but grow in others? What’s the difference between a “mirage” and a real outcome? Past elections can provide a guide. They show that mail-in votes in recent elections have leaned heavily toward Democrats — and that in some states, counties report those ballots first. That can create a so-called “blue mirage” in races that end up being only narrow victories for Democrats or even substantial victories for Republicans.
